Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead over former President Donald Trump in the election betting markets narrowed to a single point, amid a surge in bets favoring the Republican candidate as polling numbers continued to show a tight race in nearly all key swing states
According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five major markets, bookmakers give Harris a 50.1% chance of winning in November, one point higher than Trump’s 49.1%.
This marks a major shift from last week, when odds favoring Harris were 3.5 points higher than Trump’s.
The biggest boost for Trump’s odds has come from bookmakers on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, who now predict the former president is a slight favorite with a 50.8% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 48.2%.
Bettors on PredictIt, the market where Harris has consistently led Trump over the past month, now give the vice president 54 cents per share (roughly equating to a 54% chance) compared to Trump’s 50 cents per share.
On Kalshi—which recently won a federal court ruling to continue accepting bets on the election—bookmakers also give Harris a slight edge at 51% compared to 49% for Trump.
On the British betting site Smarkets, bookmakers predict Harris now has a 50.5% chance of winning, while Trump’s odds are at 48%..
On Polymarket, where Trump now leads Harris, the big shift has occurred in the betting odds for the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. Bookmakers now give Trump a 55.5% chance of winning the state—up from 49% last week. Billionaire Elon Musk, who has endorsed Trump’s candidacy, shared an X post from a follower who pointed out that the boost in Trump’s odds in Pennsylvania comes “just a day after Elon Musk attended his rally” in the state.
Big Number
2.6%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
